Oilers’ Zach Hyman is one of the best UFA signings of the NHL’s salary cap era

When Zach Hyman signed a seven-year contract with an AAV of $5.5 million on July 28, 2021, nobody – not even Hyman himself – could have envisioned the goal-scoring tirade he’d end up going on.

We’re only in the third year of his deal, and it’s safe to say it’s one of the greatest free agent signings since the start of the NHL’s salary cap era in 2005-06.

Hyman’s 2023-24 campaign has been extraordinary. He’s on pace to crack the 80-point mark for the second time in his career after setting a personal best of 36 goals and 83 points in 79 games last year. He’s currently on pace to fall just short of the point total this season, but with 64 goals, he has already demolished anything he has done before that. Hyman is on pace for 59 goals this year, just one behind Sam Reinhart for second in the league.

Scoring four hat-tricks in a season doesn’t hurt, that’s for sure.

Hyman has always been capable of putting pucks in the net. But with his salary, and his career performance to date, scoring 50 seemed like an incredible stretch when he first moved to Alberta. Hyman joined the team at a time where finding secondary scoring was difficult, and with Hyman priced out of a new deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs, having a chance to play alongside Connor McDavid was a perfect fit.

Hyman was drafted 123rd overall by the Florida Panthers in 2010 but never signed with the club. Instead, his rights were moved to the Maple Leafs in 2015 after his monster senior year with the University of Michigan Wolverines, signing his entry-level contract just days later. Hyman had a good six-year run with the Leafs, and if it wasn’t for COVID-19 shortening the 2020-21 season, he would have hit 50 points for the first time in his career there.

But the move to Edmonton changed everything. He had 54 points in 76 games in 2021-22, showing that Hyman was legit. Everything else since then? He’s a certified NHL star.

It’s not like he played with scrubs in Toronto, either. His primary linemates were Mitch Marner – one of the NHL’s better playmaking wingers – and Auston Matthews, the league’s top goal-scorer. But getting the chance with the best of the best, Connor McDavid, really helped unlock Hyman’s true potential.

One theory? When you’ve got Matthews to feed pucks to, you do it. He’s the league’s best scorer for a reason. But McDavid – on pace for over 100 assists for the first time in his career – is as elite of a set-up guy as you’ll find in the sport. Hyman’s been fortunate to play with two of the NHL’s top superstars throughout his career, and people will discredit him for that – similar to four-time Stanley Cup champion Chris Kunitz from his days with the Pittsburgh Penguins.

But no winger has found the level of success with McDavid that Hyman has. You don’t fall into opportunities like that by accident—there’s no shortage of players dying for a chance to play with a future Hall of Famer. But Hyman’s ability to keep up with the pace and finish at a high rate makes him so valuable.

According to Evolving-Hockey, Hyman’s 25.9 goals above replacement and 4.2 wins above replacement put him third in the NHL, one spot behind McDavid. For comparison, Evander Kane – the line’s left winger – is 819th out of 850 skaters with at least 50 minutes of ice time. At 5-on-5, Hyman and McDavid have rarely been separated. But in essentially every notable puck possession metric, McDavid’s performance is significantly better with Hyman by his side.

Since Jan. 1, Hyman’s 27 goals put him just one behind Matthews’ league-leading total in that span. Hyman has just six assists in that span, which looks awfully ridiculous in retrospect. But at 5-on-5, no player—not even Matthews—has a better goals-per-60 rate all season long than Hyman’s 1.84.

Hyman does much more than just score goals – he works his tail off, contributes defensively, and thrives on the power play. But at $119,565 per goal, according to CapFriendly, there isn’t a better cost-per-goal scorer worth over $5 million in the league. Even if that’s all he did well, at least he picked the most important aspect of the game to thrive at, right?

In plain English: Zach Hyman is a damn good hockey player that’s making the most of his opportunities – better than anyone McDavid has ever skated alongside, other than Leon Draisaitl.

Is Hyman the Oilers’ best free agent signing ever? Absolutely. And if he keeps at the rate he’s playing right now, he could end up being one of the best UFA signings we’ve seen. Scott Niedermayer helped the Anaheim Ducks win the Stanley Cup in 2007. Zdeno Chara will forever be a legend in Boston. Marian Hossa was integral to Chicago’s dynasty. Artemi Panarin is playing his best hockey in New York, and has been one of the game’s biggest stars for quite some time. Among current players, he’s at the top among UFA pickups, no question about it.

All of them were great in their own ways. Three are in the Hall of Fame. But each of them were well-defined NHL superstars already. Hyman went from being a good support player to one of the best goal-scorers in the NHL in just a few short years – and at a bank-friendly cost.

Hyman’s still in his prime, and hopefully, he has many more good years of hockey to go. A Stanley Cup still eludes him, but the Oilers seem well-positioned to contend this year. Without Hyman? This team’s still dealing with the same scoring depth issues they had for the first few years with No. 97 and No. 29 tearing things up.

At this point, 60 goals isn’t out of reach for Hyman this season. Not too shabby.