NHL Predictions: Carolina Hurricanes Three Keys to Victory vs Toronto Maple Leafs

The Carolina Hurricanes are back at it again in this round of NHL Predictions taking on the Toronto Maple Leafs at home. This is the third and final meeting between these two this season. Carolina has won both of the first two by narrow margins. The last game saw them make a dramatic comeback by scoring two goals within the last two minutes to tie the game and then winning in a shootout.

Toronto will look to enact some revenge in Carolina as their last outing against the Hurricanes was probably the second most disappointing one they have had with this team after the David Ayres defeat. Toronto is still in a good place in the standings and looks likely to finish in the top three in the Atlantic Division. They also still boast some of the top offensive talents in the league in Auston Matthews and William Nylander as well as John Tavares and Mitch Marner, who has been out with injury.

Carolina’s latest win streak was broken by the Washington Capitals Friday night in a bizarre game. A 7-6 shootout loss to the Capitals saw a long list of penalties, multiple lead changes, duelling hat tricks between Sonny Milano and Sebastian Aho, and two Carolina overturned goals. But Carolina is still 8-1-1 in their last ten and pushing for the top spot in the Metro Division.

With the hopes that Carolina’s last game was an outlier, the Hurricanes look to get back to their game against the Leafs. Here are three keys to a Carolina victory.

NHL Predictions: Carolina Hurricanes vs Toronto Maple Leafs

Three Keys to Victory for Carolina

Back to a Strong Penalty Kill

One of Carolina’s biggest strengths this season has been their penalty kill. And that still remains. They have a tendency to take a fair number of penalties due to their aggressive play (although some may argue this point). But they also have been able to keep the opposition off the score sheet on the man advantage. That is huge because it ends up flipping the script and turning a disadvantage into momentum for the team. Many times, it is the difference in a Hurricanes win.

But last game, Carolina wasn’t as successful on the kill. They killed three of six Capitals power plays. Had they killed just one or two more of them the game might have ended differently. It was a weird game with weird bounces but also saw rare missed coverages and failed clearing attempts by Carolina. They still stand at 85.1% and good enough for second in the league on the kill but Toronto has offensive firepower with a fifth-best 26.0% power play. Carolina has to get back to their strong kill in this one.

Seth Jarvis, Enjoy the Ride

Carolina’s top line of Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis and Jake Guentzel have been on fire as of late. Not that Carolina hasn’t had effective first lines throughout the year, but this line really looks like a top-tier NHL first line. The youngest of the three Jarvis is a major reason why. Ironically, it was Toronto’s draft pick traded to Carolina that ended with Jarvis.

He is second on the team in goals with 27 and is knocking on the door to break 30 for the first time in his career. Even though he is not the biggest player, he is extremely effective on the forecheck, strong defensively, and skilled enough to play off the rush. He can do a little bit of everything and will probably see a big pay raise this offseason.

Not only is his play effective, but his attitude is also one that seems to bring a spark to the team. Winning is fun but having fun can sometimes translate to winning. This is what Jarvis brings. Currently, he has scored in six straight games. He has developed great chemistry with Aho and Guentzel and at times helps that line look like the Harlem Globetrotters. Another big game from Jarvis will go a long way for Carolina here.

Limit Breakaways

Carolina can do many things well, generally. They usually limit chances against while raking up chances for. They also tend to control most of the play with large shares of time in the offensive zone. At times it looks like the opposition has nowhere to go. But their last game against Toronto saw the Leafs breaking this system by splitting the defence and getting consistent breakaways.

In fact, three of Toronto’s four goals against Carolina in their last matchup were on breakaways. This is not a recipe for success. Carolina’s defence needs to be aware of the forwards near the blue line looking to split them and monitor their gaps accordingly. They like to get in on the rush and forecheck but have to be responsible defensively when doing so. But this too means the forwards have to be aware and come back to cover when the defencemen pinch. With as much skill as Toronto has, limiting breakaways will be huge.

Prediction Time

This has the potential to be another tight game for these two. Both are in top spots in the Eastern Conference looking to solidify their play and positioning in the playoffs. Carolina should be fired up after a loss to the Capitals while Toronto will look to get revenge for their last matchup with Carolina. For the Hurricanes, Frederik Andersen will likely get the start as Pyotr Kochetkov played against Washington. The Carolina Hurricanes need to be sharp as they should expect a fast game in this round of NHL Predictions.

Prediction: Carolina wins 3-2