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Equibase Analysis: Bold Act Leads Strong Field in Elkhorn Stakes

Originally posted on Paulick Report | By Ellis Starr | Last updated 4/16/24

The Grade 2, $350,000 VisitLEX Elkhorn Stakes, run at the marathon distance of 1 1/2 miles on turf, drew a strong field, with five of the entrants stakes winners in similar races. That group is led by Irish-bred Bold Act, who won the G3 Sycamore Stakes at this distance on the Keeneland turf six months ago, as well as the Group 2 Dubai City of Gold Stakes last month. Highland Chief, another Irish-bred who returns after more than a year away from the races, won the 2022 Sycamore before a 12th-place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf the following month. Dynadrive won the G3 John B. Connally Stakes in late January and adds another proven contender to the mix, as does Missed the Cut, winner of the similar G3 San Luis Rey Stakes in California four weeks ago.

Wentru was victorious in the G3 Valedictory Stakes at this distance in the fall of 2022 but is winless in three races since. Irish-bred The Grey Wizard finished second in the G2 Belmont Gold Cup Stakes last June at the distance of two miles and is another who may have a say in the outcome. German-bred Winning Spirit makes his U.S. debut off a layoff since last summer but was second in the Group 2 Italian Derby and may fit with these as well. Silver Knott, who began his racing career in his native England, last raced in California when third in the G1 Hollywood Derby in December and ran the best race of his career at Keeneland when beaten a nose in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in the fall of 2022. King Curlin is running in a stakes race for the first time and returns off a layoff since January when he earned a win at the distance in an allowance level race. Lucky Curlin rounds out the field, having finished fifth in the G2 Pan American Stakes at this distance in his most recent start. Foreign Relations was entered in this race but ran this past Sunday so is likely to be withdrawn.

Top Contenders:

As formidable as Bold Act appears to be in this year’s Elkhorn, Highland Chief is just as talented and as classy. Highland Chief, imported to the U.S. in the winter of 2021, made his stateside debut in April of 2022. It was an inauspicious start as he finished ninth of 12 but it was 1 1/16-mile race, a distance he had not run in nearly three years, and it was obvious the race was designed as nothing more than a prep for longer races.

Entered back one month later, Highland Chief won the G1 Man o’ War Stakes at Belmont Park, at 1 3/8 miles. After two fourth-place efforts he took a couple of months off. Returning in October of 2022 at Keeneland in the Sycamore Stakes at the distance of the Elkhorn, Highland Chief ran back to his Man o’ War effort with a brilliant ride under John Velazquez, who was aboard for the first time and who rides in the Elkhorn. That effort resulted in a career-best 113 Equibase Speed Figure, as good as the 113 figure Bold Act earned in his most recent race. Following a poor effort and likely with something amiss as he finished 12th of 13 in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, Highland Chief was given all the time he needed to get back into form under the care of Graham Motion. In consistent training since the beginning of March and with a very strong workout on turf before leaving his previous home base in Florida, Highland Chief appears capable of running back to the best of his graded stakes winning form.

Bold Act has the same probability to win as Highland Chief in my opinion, but will be the prohibitive betting favorite considering the only time he ran in the U.S. previously, he won. That win was in the Sycamore Stakes last year, where the 117 Equibase Figure earned was better than the 113 figure Highland Chief earned winning the same race 12 months earlier. Since then, Bold Act returned off a four and one-half month layoff to win the Dubai City of Gold Stakes on March 2 at Meydan Racecourse, winning easily in a field of nine and earning a 113 figure. He is likely to run even better in his second start of the year so certainly would be no surprise if emerging victorious for the eighth time in his 14th career race.

Honorable mention goes to both Missed the Cut and to Dynadrive, as well as to The Grey Wizard, because all three have won at this mile and one-half trip on turf. Missed the Cut did that in his first try at the distance, last month in California, earning a 107 figure in the San Luis Rey Stakes. Dynadrive won the similar John B. Connally Stakes in Texas with a 106 figure at the end of January, while The Grey Wizard won an allowance race at Keeneland at the distance last April, before earning a 112 figure when second in the two-mile Belmont Gold Cup.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is King Curlin (100), Lucky Curlin (101), Silver Knott (GB) (110), Wentru (103) and Winning Spirit (GER) (106).

Win Contenders:
Highland Chief (IRE)
Bold Act (IRE)

Grade 2, $350,000 VisitLEX Elkhorn Stakes
Keeneland - Saturday, April 20
Eighth Race, Post Time 4:44 p.m. ET
1 1/2 Miles on Turf, 4-Year-Olds and Upward

This article first appeared on Paulick Report and was syndicated with permission.

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